How Many Registered Voters Live In Pa

Analysis

Voter registration update: PA GOP further narrows Dems' registration edge

If voting registration figures are a lagging indicator of partisan enthusiasm, then Republicans are heading into the state'south primaries with a major caput of steam.

People register to vote during a Republican voter registration in Brownsville, PA.

People annals to vote during a Republican voter registration in Brownsville, PA. ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images

By Nick Field

If voting registration figures are a lagging indicator of partisan enthusiasm, and I believe that they are, then Republicans are heading into Pennsylvania's 2022 primaries with a major caput of steam.

It turns out that the decline in COVID-19 rates through the first months of the twelvemonth did not do much to ameliorate President Joe Biden's approving rating, which has been stuck in the low 40s since last fall.

In that time, Democrats' registration reward took a hit. Terminal Oct, they held a statewide lead of 605,493; today it stands at merely 553,827. To get a sense of where that stands historically, in May 2018, Democrats held an advantage of 815,317.

Four years ago, Pennsylvania had 4,042,928 Democrats and 3,227,611 Republicans among 8,460,068 total registered voters. Terminal week, Pennsylvania had 4,000,290 Democrats and iii,446,463 Republicans among eight,735,712 total registered voters.

To find out just where the GOP is making these gains, allow'due south swoop into the region past region numbers!

A quick note: I explore our irresolute voter trends by tracking the gains one party accumulated in registrations over the other political party. For instance, R+500 ways that the Republican Party gained a net 500 more than registered voters in that canton than the Democratic Party did over this fourth dimension period, while D+500 indicates the reverse.

Key:

Blair: R+408

Bradford: R+306

Cameron: R+59

Centre: R+286

Clearfield: R+804

Clinton: R+256

Columbia: R+484

Elk: R+414

Huntingdon: R+201

Juniata: R+167

Lycoming: R+367

McKean: R+103

Mifflin: R+208

Montour: R+149

Northumberland: R+619

Potter: R+twoscore

Snyder: R+90

Sullivan: R+86

Tioga: R+97

Union: R+104

Fifty-fifty in these relatively small counties, the GOP continues to mail service consistently solid gains. Over my years of doing this, I've found Centre County to exist a skillful bellwether. If Democrats aren't adding voters there (the home of Penn State University), it tends to propose they're in the midst of a troubling trend.

Northeast:

Carbon: R+572

Lackawanna: R+1,594

Luzerne: R+2,864

Monroe: R+884

Expressway: R+258

Schuylkill: R+843

Susquehanna: R+221

Wayne: R+291

Wyoming: R+81

These are tough results for Scranton Joe, especially when his 2020 victory was aided by slight improvements in this region'south rural counties. Republican growth in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties, which slowed a bit over the last few years, is now again resembling its rapid 2015-2017 footstep. Any statewide Republican victory volition crave an impressive performance in those ii counties, every bit Donald Trump did back in 2016.

Northwest:

Clarion: R+187

Crawford: R+414

Erie: R+1,532

Forest: R+46

Jefferson: R+187

Mercer: R+978

Venango: R+266

Warren: R+280

The lakeside canton of Erie is one of the commonwealth's about pivotal, as Pennsylvania's northwest corner has gone dorsum and forth from quondam President Barack Obama to onetime President Donald Trump to President Joe Biden. Therefore, the to a higher place effect is particularly concerning for the land'due south Democrats. Democratic Senate primary leader John Fetterman, a fervent laic in Erie's bellwether condition, has already made multiple visits hither and will definitely make more should he win the nomination.

South Central:

Adams: R+650

Bedford: R+356

Cumberland: R+409

Dauphin: R+554

Franklin: R+593

Fulton: D+8

Lancaster: R+681

Lebanon: R+329

Perry: R+232

York: R+i,695

Over the past few years, Pennsylvania Democrats have experienced some encouraging growth in this region, just not so this year (likewise that peculiar consequence in Fulton County). Long-term, though, Dauphin and Cumberland counties remain promising spots for blue growth. Meanwhile York County, and to a perhaps diminishing extent Lancaster County, remain powerhouses of Republican voters.

Southeast:

Berks: R+1,896

Bucks: R+two,212

Chester: R+123

Delaware: D+1,037

Lehigh: R+ane,085

Montgomery: D+722

Northampton: R+1,336

Philadelphia: R+6,945

Even during terrible times, the collar counties of Delaware and Montgomery counties still saw Autonomous gains. Other than that, yet, these numbers are fantastic for Republicans, with key gains in Northampton, Lehigh, Berks and especially Bucks counties. For decades, Bucks has been a must-win county for any statewide Democratic candidate and any long-term erosion there would be dangerous. Finally, those Philadelphia numbers are probably a effect of voter ringlet updates, although I'll exist keeping an middle out to meet if the Democrats are hitting whatsoever kind of ceiling there.

Southwest:

Allegheny: R+3,928

Armstrong: R+314

Beaver: R+1,498

Butler: R+909

Cambria: R+1,595

Fayette: R+1,676

Greene: R+442

Indiana: R+418

Lawrence: R+905

Somerset: R+676

Washington: R+1,902

Westmoreland: R+three,328

Republicans have been feverishly gaining footing in southwestern Pennsylvania for years, as Appalachian bequeathed Democrats go along to officially get out a party they stopped voting for long ago. Peculiarly impressive are the totals in Allegheny, Westmoreland, Washington, Fayette, Cambria and Beaver counties.

At this stride, Fayette will flip from having a Democratic plurality of registrants to a Republican plurality past the end of this year. That would leave just Allegheny and Beaver as bluish counties in the southwest. In fact, it shouldn't accept much longer for Beaver to flip as well and leave Allegheny as the solitary blue haven amidst a cherry-red sea.

Conclusions

Peradventure paradoxically, the political momentum in America tends to belong to the party out of power. Fear, anger and the hurting of losing fuel an opposition whose passion burns brighter than that of the victors.

In the outset weeks later Jan. 6, among reports of an exodus of Republicans from voter rolls across the nation, some Democrats dared to dream this bicycle might be unlike. The party even managed to make some gains that spring. Alas, this moment would prove to exist curt-lived.

During the 2d half of 2021, the Biden White House suffered a series of successive blows: the Delta variant sparking another COVID wave, the plummet of the Afghan government during the U.S. troop withdrawal, U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin, W-Va., killing the Build Back Better bill and spiraling economic inflation.

All the while, Pennsylvania Republicans were cut into the Democrats' aforementioned registration advantage. Now, with the primaries nearing and the two GOP statewide contests remaining competitive, it appears a salubrious share of bequeathed Democrats finally inverse their status to vote in Tuesday's closed primaries.

So are Republicans destined to sweep the Keystone Country contests in November? Well, despite how rosy the picture seems at this moment, there's plenty that tin can still go wrong. For instance, potential nominees like Doug Mastriano, Kathy Barnette and Mehmet Oz all take considerable vulnerabilities.

Recollect that the terminal time the Pennsylvania GOP managed to win governor and U.S. Senate races they depended not but on the red wave of 2010, only also a pair of strong nominees in U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey and old Gov. Tom Corbett. Even with a favorable national surroundings, a poor option of nominees could cost the GOP these races.

Notwithstanding, these are concerning numbers for Pennsylvania Democrats. The political party must find a way to pick upward the pace, especially in the vote-rich Southeast. Perhaps probable nominees Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman can indeed pull off victories in the confront of potent national headwinds.

We're in a time of great uncertainty, only the dazzler of elections is that we'll know much more on Tuesday night.

Contributor Nick Field covers southeastern Pennsylvania and its suburbs for the Capital-Star, where this story first appeared. Follow him on Twitter @Nick_Field90 .